Emerging Millennial Families Challenge The Trendcasters

In the past week, I completed a detailed profile of a number of the Atlanta-area hip neighborhoods along with a number of more established ones. 

The project was actually for a couple of entrepreneurs attempting to start a new gallery in an outlying Inside-The-Perimeter (ITP) community called Chamblee. 

Chamblee is going through some transition right now and many believe that it will become even more popular as the price to live closer in-town in metro Atlanta continues to sky-rocket.  I personally believe, it has a tad bit longer to go.

Back to the broader analytics.

One of the neighborhoods that I profiled out in the analysis is called Old 4^th Ward or O4W. 

The O4W ‘hood is located just east of Midtown-Downtown and has served as a collection bin of a lot of the urban grind as Atlanta expanded.  From project housing to homeless centers to various addendum offices of both municipal and state government agencies, the area has lived a mixed history past.

Right in the middle of O4W is a massive building that originally housed the only Sears store in Atlanta.  When Sears left the urban 'hood and fled to the ‘burbs, the building was taken over by the city of Atlanta and became what was labeled as City Hall East.  And about 15 years ago when the City Hall consolidated back downtown, the building was left abandoned.

Back in 2013, a development firm purchased the building and did a massive rehab of it converting it into an urban live-work-play complex now called Ponce City Market.

In a just a few short years, O4W has gone through a virtual resurrection. 

A good friend of mine who serves as EVP of Client Services at one of the Atlanta ad agencies, told me over lunch this past week that his daughter who just landed her first job out of college has a very strong desire to live in O4W. 

Does not surprise me. 

However, most of the new apartments including Ponce City Market are fetching close to $2,000 per month for a 450 square foot “one-bedroom studio.”

When I profiled out O4W, I was somewhat surprised to learn that more than 75% of the neighborhood is dominated by two Millennial Nielsen Lifestyle Groups nicknamed, “The Cosmopolitans” and “Connected Bohemians.”  Those two groups in the Atlanta Metro (MSA) represent less than 2%. 

There are a lot of Atlanta corporations – Coca-Cola being one and Georgia Pacific being another that are headquartered adjacent to Atlanta’s O4W. 

Most of the self-proclaimed top ad agencies and PR companies in Atlanta are not only anchored adjacent to O4W, but there are a couple that have relocated to Ponce City Market.

I tell this story simply to set up this blog about Millennials.

Don’t buy in to all that you hear the marketeers and agency prognosticates say as they look into their shiny crystal balls. 

When I explored other areas of Atlanta, I was surprised again.  

Neighborhoods that are really not considered hip nor located Inside-The-Perimeter (ITP) are growing and the growth is being driven by… Millennials!

Just as the Millennials drove change with social media, mobile technology and ADHD relationship dynamics, they are quickly evolving again and there are a few areas where we all need to grab hold of before too much is invested in something soon to change!

#1 Millennials Are Re-Defining The Family Unit - Not Really

There’s a number of sources out there that spout the fact that Millennials are less likely to get married, less likely to have kids and more likely to float from one relationship to another.

No question about it, Millennials have delayed marriage… although not too unlike their Baby Boomer parents.  Unlike GenXers, Millennials have not been driven by a preponderance of divorce making marriage a “must do.”

BUT… Millennials are now getting married and a good share are having their first kid. 

If you do not believe this, check out the TLC primetime show schedule, google the latest Tide detergent ads and catch the new Gerber’s baby food ad airing on HGTV. 

And then get a load of these stats from Pew Research Center… 60% of the children birthed by Millennials will be born to married parents vs. 45% back in 2006, ten years ago.

And… a release from the U.S. Census Bureau states… In 2015, 59% of children were born to married parents.  That percentage is expected to rise to 77% in the next 10 years.

Are they redefining the family unit? 

Not much from the Boomers with the exception that more moms will probably work and more kids will likely be birthed among married parents whether straight or gay or multi-ethnic-racial-religion-roots.

#2 Millennials Are Going To Live In Tiny Houses - Its A Fad!

If you watch HGTV, Great American Country or FYI-TV, you would rush out and buy stock in any of the firms out there pre-fab building or building Tiny Houses onsite.

Here in Atlanta in O4W, there’s even a Tiny House sitting right in the middle of Ponce City Market where you can go and have it towed over to your current drive-way and try living in a Tiny House a night or two. 

Tiny Houses are likely to be a fad more than a long-term market changer. 

On the psyche level, transitional Millennials are connecting with them right now because they are not too different from the college dorm room or the bedroom of their parent’s house – both environments that the trailing Millennials have desire to part from and leave-behind.

Few have come to realize the economics of mobile homes.  They depreciate unlike real estate property that can – depending upon the economy – actually appreciate.  

Millennials in general are not the best at understanding economic fundamentals.

And on the lifestyle level, very few have actually gone through the change-of-life experience to truly realize that living in one means they cannot shop Target or Amazon or Anthropologie.

While city housing economics are driving the constraints of smaller space, not too sure that Millennials will stay anchored in the in-town ‘hoods in the next 5-10 years and seek out cheaper places to get another bedroom or two.

And check out this next trend changer…

#3 Millennials Are Shedding The Need For Owning A Car - Tell That To The Dealers!

You could be in the hipster Millennial communities of Georgetown, Portland, Brooklyn, San Diego or Austin and you will read headline posts on the community pub websites about how bikes are in and how Uber, Lift and Zipcar are soon to replace any need for cars.

Shoot, I was a speaker in Atlanta at a leadership conference and shared the stage with the grandson of one of the top retail developers who talked of doing away with the need for parking lots in about five years.

The one “grounding” practice I do with clients often is to put them in a car and journey out into the ‘burbs and go to a Kroger grocery store, a Target and a Home Depot.  Doing that often re-introduces them to the actual real world that living in the hipster pocket communities can often blur both vision of and recall.

Back in March, the Business Insider posted an article titled, “Everything we thought about Millennials not buying cars was wrong.”

The article goes on to report how the Millennials are not surpassing Boomers in their hot desire to outright purchase (note... I did not say lease) vehicles (note the plural).

As the article states… “Millennials — especially the oldest ones — are these days buying cars in big numbers. They just had a late start and the theory that millennials would stick to skateboards, bikes, mass transit, and walking has turned out to be unsupportable.”

Not only are they buying lots of vehicles, but very few are electric (Boomers are the ones buying those) and a large percentage are either SUVs or gas guzzling pickup trucks.

#4 Millennials Are Forever Going To Live In-Town - Credit Limits Do Have Limits!

In-town living is trendy right now.  Its where a Millennial can live, work and play – more often in a newly constructed or renovated complex complete with parking garage and round-the-clock security.

Yes… there are some that have been able to initially afford the purchase of a house located in neighborhoods renovated and revamped by Gen X professionals or bohemian gay guys purchasing the homes long before the ‘hood was hip.   

BUT… will they be able to afford the taxes once the kids enter their households and they have to deal with education costs.

I will even go out on the edge and make a speculation that the Urban Apartment Boom will soon Bust too. 

The rental economic model is driven right now by annual rental increases for at least the next 5-9 years in the double-digit percentage range.  

The Millennial Boom in rental housing is now past the top of the bell-curve according to an article that ran this past weekend in the New York Times business section.  

While Millennials in Atlanta are concentrated in the O4W, there are also Millennials bearing individual nicknames like “Up-and-Comers,” “Young Influentials,” and “Generation Web” who are commanding more than 30% of more suburban and exurban satellite towns.

As my mother used to say to me, “the math simply does not add up.” 

While a share of Millennials will settle in-town, as those babies come, a good share will also be following the pathways of their Boomer parents.

#5 Millennials Are Driving Healthier Eating Habits - Hand Me My Red Bull!

Where I have my country Farm House east of Atlanta in the college town of Athens, Georgia, there’s a hip new place that opened up that is all the rage.

My Saturday morning coffee friends insisted that we had to meet up at this place versus the Indie coffee house where we traditionally get-together.

This new place is called Zombie Coffee and Donuts. Coffee is not the mainstay.  Cake donuts custom made and sold in serving packs of 2 or 6 full-size donuts take center-stage.

When we met there on a Saturday morning a few weeks ago, the Millennials with their kids riding in the $500+ strollers also took center-stage.  What I found most entertaining was watching these supposedly nutritionally smart parents feed their toddlers those full-size fried cake donuts complete with everything from multi-colored sugar sprinkles to chunks of milk chocolate candy bars to fat-loaded bacon strips.

I know, I know… you are thinking that this is just a side-show that popped up in a college-town.

Articles with titles like “Millennials are lying about their desire to eat healthy food” and “shifting over to nutritionally smart fast food is not paying off” can be found by simply Googling Millennials and Healthy Foods.

Sure, Millennials purchase of Coke products continues to decline, but sales of high-sugar content “energy” drinks like Red Bull, 5 Hour, Monster and Rockstar continue to climb.

And … LOL… Whole Foods might offer the all-natural, organic, nutritionally smart alternatives, but at prices over $5 per can challenge many Millennial debit card limits.

In Conclusion

I know that this is a long blog, but there is no question that Millennials are rocking the marketplace. 

Smart brand teams will not be swayed by the hip trendsetters, but rather dig below the surface and discover there’s more happening right before our eyes. 

Hey... if you want more rude awakenings... that your competitors are not willing to engage in... call me!

The Mature Generation Is Still Driving... Both Their Cars And The Marketplace!

I take a break from work and clients most every day from 6pm until 8pm during the week.  It’s a time when I sit back with a light dinner and drink and prop my feet up on the ottoman. 

It’s not time allocated to grabbing the evening news.  Instead it’s a chance to tune into the re-runs of Seinfeld on TBS.

I remember watching Seinfeld back when it premiered.  It was fun to watch because I could identify with like guys and gals that also called New York City home.

However, today when I watch the show, I am much more entertained by Jerry and George’s parents… and their parents’ friends.

What I find most entertaining about the parents is that I now live and breathe my parents, their friends and even a few of my own personal friends who embody that same Mature Generation lifestyle today.

Yelling and screaming and saying whatever is on their mind is less constrained today by the defined parameters of their past.

We don’t really hear too much about the Mature Generation in the news and media world.  Shoot, the Millennials now have the spotlight and their Boomer parents stand just to the side. 

But the very simple fact that the Mature Generation is living longer than any other generation to-date is rattling a lot of changes and serving as the catalyst of many factors influencing the market.

Anchoring readers quickly… here are a few factors that I think are particularly interesting factoids about the Mature Generation…

(1)  Statistically, Matures span the age range of 74-91 years of age in 2016 and total about 55 million members here in the U.S…. the group is not dying off at the pace initially projected… they are living longer and staying healthy

(2)  Born and raised in the midst of the Great Depression, Matures post the highest levels of wealth of any other generational group, are the most financially stable and post the lowest levels of debt and bad credit…. Matures understand some financial fundamentals especially related to savings and budget spending

(3)  Not only are Matures living longer, but they are also the healthiest generation with the lowest levels of obesity and dietary problems… Matures grew up in a work environment in which pay, promotion and recognition was drive by performance and they are translating the same dynamics to their health and process of aging

(4)  Matures are the largest voting block… not necessarily in generational size, but in showing up at the polling booths and capitalizing on their right to vote… we all hear about the Millennials electing Obama, but we rarely hear about Matures driving local, state and non-presidential candidates.  LOL… while the news media elects to highlight HRC, Black Lives Matter, AFL-CIO  and NOW as the top lobbyist groups in the America, the AARP founded by the Mature Generation is actually the largest lobbyist group in the U.S.

(5)  Matures divorced more than any other generational group and have been married more times over than any other generational group.  While Boomers and Millennials are often showcased for their sexual promiscuity… just remember that Matures have spent the most time ever in divorce courts. 

The Mature Generation remains cemented in their values of authority and rules, logic and order, right and wrong… loyalty and respect. 

In a marketplace driven by the physics of balance and co-existence of opposites perhaps made most famous by the dynamics of High Tech and High Touch, the Mature Generation is matching up more with kids less than 8-9 years old than any other Generational group. 

As I have shared many times in this Blog, where I reside in Atlanta is an area of the city where many Millennials have since also settled… a share of which are now having a baby or two. 

What I find most interesting is how Millennials and their babies and young kiddies are bypassing the Boomer grandparents and connecting more instead with the local Matures. 

Parents of the young kiddies today are becoming much more anchored with high touch icons ranging from real, natural foods to actual stuffed toys to real books – shoot even coloring books and Crayons.

Boomer grandparents are still trying to integrate in technology and, in many cases, fail to connect to the high touch. 

But the Matures???... well it’s a natural connection.

And unlike the Boomers who are still attempting to recover from their over-mortgaged debt, the Matures have the dollars to go shop at Whole Foods to purchase those great whole grain cereals and right-off-the-local-farm milks. 

Marketers need to take note.  Brand trendsetters need to refocus. 

Whether its walking the malls that they saw become hot and now not or walking the neighborhood streets to grab a print newspaper, the Matures are not going to be dying off any time soon.

Running, Coca Cola, Lands End and Politics

Yesterday morning was a Saturday morning.

Normally, I hang out with retired professors and corporate VPs.  Instead, I stayed in the city and went over to the Farmer’s Market – or a variation of a Farmer’s Market in the Virginia-Highland neighborhood in Atlanta.

Virginia-Highland is a neighborhood area that lies just to the East of Midtown Atlanta.  An historic eclectic mix of older folks, hippies and gay guys. Over the last 10-15 years, the ‘hood became gentrified and today, Virginia-Highland sports some of the highest incomes and home values found in greater Atlanta.

Before I journeyed over to the Farmer’s booths, I sipped a cup of basic medium roast coffee and read the Friday edition of the Wall Street Journal. 

There was an article buried on the back page of section “D” that caught my attention. The headline posted the statement that the running market is leveling off and further, that Millennials are not much into running any more.

More than 13 years ago, I actually teamed up with Jerry Cronin, the creative director from Wieden+Kennedy who drove Nike’s Just Do It campaign.

Then I quickly re-anchor that the Just Do It campaign back in 1988. Back when the Millennials were popping out.

The WSJ article went on to report that Millennials actually are much more involved today in non-competitive sports, self-defined goal achievement and group exercise programs. 

Walking today is much more hip than running.

Especially if you are sipping on your low-fat, medium-foam, lactose-free, double-espresso, cold-brewed, drip Venti Starbucks whole bean Latte.

The article went on to say that everyone from the running brands to the sporting good retailers to the community run organizers are scratching their heads in disbelief. 

What I found intriguing in the article is just the vast number of firms that believe they have their finger on the pulse when what they actually are reading is a micro beat of their own limited perspective world.

When I next journeyed over to the Virginia Highland Farmer’s Market, I ran into some Coke execs.  We talked a little bit about the major changes taking place at the corporate headquarters as Coke dramatically drops out of the bottling business and pares back its corporate staff.

Coke’s CEO was featured in the WSJ about three weeks ago. The article was all about further decline in Coke’s global sales as the population from China to India to Europe to Ohio shifts from colas to other options to quench their thirsts.

What struck me in the article was the CEO claim that better times were soon to hit with Coke’s newest ad campaign and increase in their ad spending.

Denial is a stage that many combating an addiction face.

Coca Cola is a mature brand facing declining demand.  And its Baby Boomer leadership believes that a re-birth is right around the corner.

Moving On.

As I was sipping coffee this morning, I read another interesting story in the weekend edition of the WSJ.  This article appears right on the front page.

Title of the article: “Land’s End Gets Refashioned.”

While some leadership stands in denial, there’s another pack of leadership that jumps right in and makes radical change. 

Now I am not necessarily critiquing radical change.  Sometimes radical change is what’s needed to move a brand forward. 

I read the article about Land’s End with great interest.

A struggling Land’s End board hired a new CEO about 18 months ago. 

Land’s End slept in the bed with Sears for about ten years and then was spun off as a separate company back in 2013. 

The CEO hired back in February 2015 is a young lady named Federica Marchionni.  She came on board from having served in top management at Ferrari and Dolce & Gabbana.

While I attempt that vast majority of time not to make gender discriminating remarks, I must speculate that some older members of the Land’s End board found the Italian dame to be rather charming. 

The article goes on to talk about how Ms. Marchionni essentially runs the company based up in Dodgeville Wisconsin, a little dinky city due west of Madison Wisconsin, from her Manhattan pier-de-tier CEO office.

I cannot see top management of Ferrari driving a Subaru across the Wisconsin country-side.

The article goes on to talk about how Ms. Marchionni has “strategically” attempted to move Lands End into the upper Westside fashion scene.  Out are the baggy flannels and in are new signature high heels.

As I read the article, I had to ponder if Ms. Marchionni just might be from the same lineage as Robbie Johnson, the past CEO of JCPenney that was hired away from Apple. 

Similar to Robbie, Ms. Marchionni made the front page of the WSJ because sales at Lands End continue to slide. 

Not too unlike Coke, I bet Ms. Marchionni has seldom, if ever, actually hung out and shared a cup of coffee with the Midwestern Boomers and GenXers who long sought out the those flannel shirts and baggy pants to balance the daily grind of their 24/7 work.

Similar to Robbie, Ms. Marchionni will likely not be CEO too much longer.  If any one wants to take a $50 bet that she will be job seeking next February, please let me know.

There is no question that the marketplace is radically changing. 

There are those who chose to move forward blindly marching to the beat of a drummer hidden deep in the inter-sanctums of their mind.

There are those who simply chose to ponder and expect that increasing the ad dollars will cause their Zombie perception of the market place to change.

Then there are those who decide to side step the historic framework of the marketplace and elect to craft a Madison Avenue (or Fifth Avenue) brand culture. 

And then there are those who get out from behind the desk and venture out and chat with people.  Listen to what people have to say.  Ask people to be a bit visionary themselves.  And listen… really listen to what people say… and people do not say. 

Over the weekend, I also heard that some ad agency folks are now living the resort-life of retirement.  These are the folks that worked at the high-brow, high-rise, higher-than-the-masses ad agencies. 

Not joking, a number actually worked at one of Coke’s ad agencies and apparently raked in the dough when the money was flowing.

God love them and I hope that they have a relaxing retirement. 

I am very glad that they are now gone.  It just clears the field for folks like me that actually do what we do because we actually thrive on getting out and dwelling with real people who make up the marketplace.

Ad agencies and the high-brow marketing teams are sitting there right now pondering just what next is going to rattle the marketplace.

They are not too unlike the political hierarchy that is sitting back stunned at the results of the primaries soon to close. 

GOP leadership just cannot figure out what has taken place.  The Dems are puzzled as to really who can be more electable.

Back in the fall last year, I posted a blog some broad observations and predictions of just what might be taking place in this election.

I was smack on target. 

About two weeks ago, I went and reviewed the EXPERIENCE website to make sure that it wasn’t dated and no longer capturing the true essence of what sets us apart from others. 

I wanted to make sure that it reflected what I write about in this blog and what I say when I am out representing the team.

Whether its tracking trends for categories like running or managing brands like Coke or Lands End or observing the political outcomes of candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, what we do at EXPERIENCE can actually be a blast.

Now in my late-50s, I have no plans to retire any time soon.  I also am not into kissing ass for the sake of securing sales.

In where we find business and brands today, sitting behind the walls of the high-rises and corporate campus locations is really not too productive. 

Shoot, even if I had been a member of the Ferrari executive team, I would have ditched the valet and gotten into a Subaru and journeyed out across the U.S.  That woman needs to ditch that Perrier and high heels too and go get her some Red Bull and a flannel button-down.