Every
year starting the first of November, I begin scripting the trends for the next
year’s Trendcast Report – something that I have done now close to 20 years ago!
It’s
always an interesting process of reviewing the field work and studies
EXPERIENCE conducted during the course of the last year as well as the trends
that peers are tracking and ferreting out the broader nature of market change.
Take
Millennials as an example.
Back
in 2003, I was already labeling the Millennials, “Millennials” versus
“Generation Y” as many in the marketing and media fields were doing.
I
projected out just how much of a change-wave the Millennials were going to be
as they exited college and entered into our social and business communities.
Today,
Millennials make up the majority share of the workforce and nearly 98% of every
baby now being delivered is the product of two Millennials.
Take
social media as another example.
Back
in the earlier days, I talked about how it and mobile technology access would
influence more than just online exchanges.
Today,
how the public processes information, secures feedback from friends,
communicates among one another and provides and receives word-of-mouth advice
operates in a context more formed by social media than past structures of communications.
Some think that folks are more direct today in expressing their thoughts... but that has been more fostered by the restrictions of texting and Twitter than many think!
House
& Home… LOL… I spoke in the early days that the great escalation of both
home prices and new home construction was in for a correction. Now going into 2017, there’s another correction in housing looming – both
homeownership and rental.
Boomer parents will loan down payments just long enough!
2017
is now 60 days away and the market is in for more change and
challenge.
Here’s
a couple pre-lude observations…
#1
Social Media has reached the level of market maturity and is morphing into
dynamics actually of the past.
An
article in the Wall Street Journal this past week talks about two conflicting
camps at Facebook. One camp
believes that Facebook is evolving into a forum of for apps… another camp
believes that Facebook is evolving into a forum of video programming.
What’s
intriguing is that nowhere in the article does it highlight the fact
that Facebook has historically been a forum of social exchange among people.
Linked
In was purchased by Microsoft and touts the purchase as a means to market
Microsoft Office and how its programs can be used to assist business
leadership.
Wow…
I am sure that the “433 million professionals” who have posted profiles on
Linked In are sitting back with baited breath to purchase Microsoft Office
products.
And
then there’s Twitter… that’s tanked.
Just as I am writing this, CBS News just broke with the announcement
that Twitter is cutting 10% of its employees because it cannot find a buyer and
is losing money at a record rate.
Reality
hits quickly once the media hype and Wall Street delusionals ask the fundamental
question… how is this venture going to generate revenue?
Whether
social media becomes another format of advertising-supported broadcast
programming or another avenue of retail distribution, what social media was all
touted to be is unraveling as we sit back and watch.
Here’s
another 2017 Trendcast Market Driver…
#2
Mass retail is downsizing and emerging as another forum of Mom & Pop.
In
the last 60 days, Target announced that store expansion is being rechanneled to
much smaller, niche-targeted Target stores – no pun intended!
Reduced
down is not only the square footage, but also in relationship to selection and
choice.
Just
as Target made its announcement, Walmart did the same.
Whole Foods is even
re-thinking its product mix and actually opening up a set of smaller Whole Food
stores that will sell mostly 360 Whole Foods generic products at a competitive
price point.
Kmart-Sears
is now an EXPERIENCE client and all I can share is that customization of the
retail deliverable is quickly replacing the business paradigm that all stores
are all the same.
Starbucks
is now diversifying too. Some Starbucks sell just coffee, others offer expanded
food selection and others sell more wines and beers than coffee.
On
another related note, there are now more new homes being built by independent
builders than home building corporations.
And
here’s another interesting trend…
#3
Suburban town squares are quickly becoming hot again as the in-town communities
become more and more similar to the look and feel of the malls.
There
is no question that I am somewhat biased in making this observation.
Where
EXPERIENCE was housed the longest was torn down about 5 years ago… a location
in the heart of the first neighborhood built in Atlanta after the city was set
ablaze in the conclusion of the Civil War.
What
sits on that site now is a “live-play” complex that houses a couple retail
chain stores, a coffee house and a few restaurants.
That
complex can be picked-up and placed in the once-hip, in-town centers of Austin,
Seattle, Boston, DC or San Diego and it would look just as much local there as
it does in Atlanta’s Historic Inman Park.
Just
this past week I read in one of the intown Atlanta newspapers that a new
development is slated to be built at on a property site that also once housed
EXPERIENCE.
It’s
a site two blocks from the home where Dr. King was born.
The
historic loft building is being expanded with 40 townhouses that will be built
above retail and restaurants in a post-modern architecture style…townhouses
that will be starting in the $600K’s.
I
am not alone in making these observations… and further emotionally pondering
the sanity of developers and “locals” allowing it.
Whether
it’s the Bohemians seeking alternative diversity or the Gay community seeking a
sense of community or artists seeking out creativity, many are stepping back
and watching their sense of place getting replaced by a canned and
cost-prohibited culture.
This
“mass produced” gentrification coupled with the rise of popularity of
mid-century culture is quickly opening up new interest in… suburban town
squares.
Part
driven by affordability… and part driven by a sense of novelty… high tech is
also facilitating what will challenge the viability of in-town communities all
over again as commute times will not matter with new dynamics of
work-from-home, web-connects and even co-working sites.
There are even some companies now realizing that relocation back out to the 'burbs might actually be easier in terms of cost as well as against-the-intown flow commutes of others.
There
are more cool trends rattling the marketplace that will challenge strategists,
entrepreneurs, top management and politicians alike.
As
I age in this from one year to the next there are some overall observations
that become clearer …
#1
– Generational groups have more impact that many marketers think
#2
– For all the integration of technology, there is more value in human
innovation
#3
– The marketplace is not linear, its cyclical but the cycles run on different
tier levels
#4
– Smart entrepreneurs and business leadership embrace challenge and change
#5
– Success requires looking beyond the obvious and the programmed… and
unraveling the submerged.
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